By: John Nikoloff, President of ERG
The Massachusetts Senatorial election on Tuesday may have major impacts on much more than the Obama administration's plans for health care reform. On the energy front, Senator-elect Scott Brown will not be an automatic yes vote for caps on GHGs, and his election is already being touted as a warning to moderate Senators and Representatives who are already nervous about cap and trade issues with elections facing them this fall.
While the Massachusetts campaign did not focus debate or discussion on global warming, some energy issues did come to the forefront. Senator-elect Brown had been vocal in his opposition to the Cape Wind project, but his opposition appears to have been driven more by the economic costs to local residents and an increased state tax burden than the concept itself. And while he voted to support the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in Massachusetts, he sought to distance himself from that effort in the campaign, saying RGGI was not working.
Senator-elect Brown talked about energy and environment only briefly: "I support common-sense environment policy that will help to reduce pollution and preserve our precious open spaces," his website said."I realize that without action now, future generations will be left to clean up the mess we leave. In order to reduce our dependence on foreign oil, I support reasonable and appropriate development of alternative energy sources such as wind, solar, nuclear, geothermal and improved hydroelectric facilities." Brown did voice his opposition to a national cap and trade program because of the higher costs that families and businesses would incur, and most recently questioned the science behind anthropomorphic climate change.
Where a 41st Republican Senator creates major issues for health care reform legislation, the climate change bills were always going to need bipartisan support for Senate passage. Many Democrats' have stated opposition to cap and trade policies and GHG limitations because of issues ranging from support for local industries like coal and manufacturing, to fears of additional financial burdens on constituents during a recession.
While a multitude of explanations have been posited for Brown's election, these explanations remain educated guesses. If it is perceived that the election marked a repudiation of the current federal "big-government agenda," sponsors of cap-and-trade legislation will have a hard time convincing moderates in the US House and Senate that now is the time to be working on this issue.
Several PA Congressmen, staff and DC lobbyists have told ERG it's now doubtful Democratic leaders will push for a sweeping climate bill unless they can find consensus to secure many more than 60 Senate votes. It appears much more likely that a stand-alone energy bill will find support among moderate Democrats and Republicans - a fact that may not be all bad, given the public's apparent distaste for the increasingly partisan, bloc-like attitudes that have developed in DC in both parties.
US climate legislation has been placed on hold while Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D, CA) have been pushing health care, reform of banks and investment companies, and economic recovery measures. Sen. Reid has, however, said he hopes to consider an energy and climate package that is being developed by Sens. John Kerry (D-MA), Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Joe Lieberman (I-CT). George Voinovich (R-OH) and Sen. Dick Lugar (R-IN) are working on a smaller-scale proposal that would limit greenhouse gas emissions from power plants. And moderate Democrats are pushing leadership to drop the cap-and- trade provisions while supporting a bill that addresses energy issues including adjustments to the RFS2, tax incentives for alternative energy production, research and development and possibly Congressional oversight of EPA rules and programs relating to GHG emissions.
After the Brown victory, and looking ahead to the 2010 elections, Democrats will be seeking a win on a major legislative initiative to demonstrate that they can take action and prove they can govern, and Republican polling suggests that party needs to soften their stridency rather than appear as only roadblocks. Both parties may see the Brown election as a warning that they should begin to reach across the aisle and show a constituents they are willing to work for the changes it appears the public demands - not simply in policy, but in governmental process.
One thing appears certain from the week's after the fact polling: the public still strongly supports energy and environmental policy changes - at least until the cost becomes a factor. But in the current economy, with another increase in unemployment last month, the public will choose job creation and cost savings over virtually any other policy that increases household expenses.
The battle to promote alternative and renewable energy, and the climate change debate have politically become issues that are being discussed in terms of jobs, energy security and environmental improvements, in that order.
Given the growing public unrest, the realities of politics and the tenor of this week's political cheers and recriminations, it seems clear that any energy policy that isn't seen as promoting jobs and an economic recovery won't work, simply because it won't get through a suddenly voter-sensitive Congress.
The Massachusetts Senatorial election on Tuesday may have major impacts on much more than the Obama administration's plans for health care reform. On the energy front, Senator-elect Scott Brown will not be an automatic yes vote for caps on GHGs, and his election is already being touted as a warning to moderate Senators and Representatives who are already nervous about cap and trade issues with elections facing them this fall.
While the Massachusetts campaign did not focus debate or discussion on global warming, some energy issues did come to the forefront. Senator-elect Brown had been vocal in his opposition to the Cape Wind project, but his opposition appears to have been driven more by the economic costs to local residents and an increased state tax burden than the concept itself. And while he voted to support the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in Massachusetts, he sought to distance himself from that effort in the campaign, saying RGGI was not working.
Senator-elect Brown talked about energy and environment only briefly: "I support common-sense environment policy that will help to reduce pollution and preserve our precious open spaces," his website said."I realize that without action now, future generations will be left to clean up the mess we leave. In order to reduce our dependence on foreign oil, I support reasonable and appropriate development of alternative energy sources such as wind, solar, nuclear, geothermal and improved hydroelectric facilities." Brown did voice his opposition to a national cap and trade program because of the higher costs that families and businesses would incur, and most recently questioned the science behind anthropomorphic climate change.
Where a 41st Republican Senator creates major issues for health care reform legislation, the climate change bills were always going to need bipartisan support for Senate passage. Many Democrats' have stated opposition to cap and trade policies and GHG limitations because of issues ranging from support for local industries like coal and manufacturing, to fears of additional financial burdens on constituents during a recession.
While a multitude of explanations have been posited for Brown's election, these explanations remain educated guesses. If it is perceived that the election marked a repudiation of the current federal "big-government agenda," sponsors of cap-and-trade legislation will have a hard time convincing moderates in the US House and Senate that now is the time to be working on this issue.
Several PA Congressmen, staff and DC lobbyists have told ERG it's now doubtful Democratic leaders will push for a sweeping climate bill unless they can find consensus to secure many more than 60 Senate votes. It appears much more likely that a stand-alone energy bill will find support among moderate Democrats and Republicans - a fact that may not be all bad, given the public's apparent distaste for the increasingly partisan, bloc-like attitudes that have developed in DC in both parties.
US climate legislation has been placed on hold while Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D, CA) have been pushing health care, reform of banks and investment companies, and economic recovery measures. Sen. Reid has, however, said he hopes to consider an energy and climate package that is being developed by Sens. John Kerry (D-MA), Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Joe Lieberman (I-CT). George Voinovich (R-OH) and Sen. Dick Lugar (R-IN) are working on a smaller-scale proposal that would limit greenhouse gas emissions from power plants. And moderate Democrats are pushing leadership to drop the cap-and- trade provisions while supporting a bill that addresses energy issues including adjustments to the RFS2, tax incentives for alternative energy production, research and development and possibly Congressional oversight of EPA rules and programs relating to GHG emissions.
After the Brown victory, and looking ahead to the 2010 elections, Democrats will be seeking a win on a major legislative initiative to demonstrate that they can take action and prove they can govern, and Republican polling suggests that party needs to soften their stridency rather than appear as only roadblocks. Both parties may see the Brown election as a warning that they should begin to reach across the aisle and show a constituents they are willing to work for the changes it appears the public demands - not simply in policy, but in governmental process.
One thing appears certain from the week's after the fact polling: the public still strongly supports energy and environmental policy changes - at least until the cost becomes a factor. But in the current economy, with another increase in unemployment last month, the public will choose job creation and cost savings over virtually any other policy that increases household expenses.
The battle to promote alternative and renewable energy, and the climate change debate have politically become issues that are being discussed in terms of jobs, energy security and environmental improvements, in that order.
Given the growing public unrest, the realities of politics and the tenor of this week's political cheers and recriminations, it seems clear that any energy policy that isn't seen as promoting jobs and an economic recovery won't work, simply because it won't get through a suddenly voter-sensitive Congress.
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